The absence of the supreme leader, the internal doubts about his presence, and the power divisions are making Iran a failing state, spreading chaos up to China. What will Beijing do?
Iranian regime media have claimed that the emerging Iran-Oman deal would enable Iran to maintain control of the Strait of Hormuz. Still, many Americans believe that any agreement granting Iran control over the strait would be detrimental to U.S. and global commercial interests. Achieving international recognition of its control over the strait would give Iran a strategic tool to use the strait as a deterrent against anyone during any political friction.
The U.S. may want to prevent this recognition, which would be a significant global setback before the midterm elections and amid complicated discussions with China on many levels.
But behind the apparent political victory may lie a deeper transformation within the Iranian regime, which could indicate a disintegration of internal power and impending chaos in the country.
On August 5, China’s official news agency Xinhua reported that Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said communications with Iran’s supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, are difficult at the moment. Is Beijing signaling that it is having a hard time talking to Tehran? And why is Pezeshkian saying this?
In the past week, Gulf states, which are now being attacked by Tehran and supply most of China’s oil, asked China to intervene with Iran to open the strait, with no results. Beijing may want to signal that it does not have people to talk to in Iran and thus cannot help the Gulf states.
According to the Iranian press (https://www.iranintl.com/en/202608045708)
“Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian was taken to a secret Tehran location and allowed only minutes in a dark, tinted-window car with a man presented as Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei. ”
It is not clear whether young Khamenei is in control of his life or his country. These reports, coming from Iran’s elected president, clearly indicate that national leadership is bitterly split, with the most radical Revolutionary Guards taking control of ultimate power by using the figure of Mojtaba. But this isolates moth Mojtaba and the Revolutionary guards setting in motions new disruptive dynamics in the country.
Moreover, to pre-empt US decapitating attacks, command structures in Iran have been devolved to local levels, and it seems unlikely they will be recentralized any time soon. The Israelis are rumored to have contacts with many senior executives in Tehran who could stage a coup. These rumors may have started a campaign of pervasive mutual suspicion, under which anyone, for any reason, can be doubted to be a traitor.
These elements make it impossible to have a clear and efficient decision-making process. Every compromise could be vetoed by a radical group refusing to follow a “traitor’s surrender,” while the supreme leader is a ghost handled by other ghosts.
The country still has manufacturing capabilities for missiles and drones, and apparently ample stockpiles.
This could present the picture of a country in deep disarticulation and disarray, on the verge of failing. But even a failed state can survive and remain dangerous. Myanmar has survived years of internal conflict without any clear winner, with the military junta still in ultimate control.
A failing Iran could multiply a vast area of instability stretching from Central Asia to the Mediterranean coasts. The US so far has avoided being stuck in the Iranian quagmire (https://www.appiainstitute.org/articles/middle-east/not-trapped-in-iran/ ). But the disarticulation of Iran de facto if not de jure in control of Hormuz may pose different types of issues to the region and the global oil supply.
Talking to Mojtaba Khamenei and guaranteeing his and other Iranian top leaders’ security in return for a step back on Hormuz could perhaps help stabilize the situation.
On the bright side, Iran’s failure is for the first time bringing together many states in the region previously divided over strategies about how to cope with Iran and its threats. Now they are all converging on ideas about how to limit Tehran’s bad influence. This builds new medium- and long-term pressures on Tehran. The region will hasten actions to bypass Hormuz, and the strait will ultimately only constraint Iranian trade and further isolate the religious leadership.
In this situation Beijing may be happy of America’s setback, but its inability to intervene and mediate puts China out of the political dynamics of the region, increasingly dominated by the US and Israel. Finding common ground with America and Israel for China could be difficult and tricky, also because Beijing may not see a clear upside in the collaboration.
However the expansion of a political blackhole at its borders may soon create new risks for China. The Iranian meltdown is occurring while Russia is also failing to hold its position in Ukraine. China could soon be surrounded by spaces of instability. Beijing might want to prevent this dire situation.
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