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Peace for the Dovish Serpent, a prayer to the Pope

With great shame, kneeling down, with all my heart, I would like to offer another perspective to the Holy Father on the extremely delicate matter of the Ukrainian war and of Ukraine’s negotiations, or even possible “surrender,” to Russian President Vladimir Putin. Putin is in a gridlock. He started the war at the end of […]

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The Sino-Russian friendship: durable alliance or marriage of convenience?

The United States and its allies are concerned about the informal but strong strategic alliance that has taken shape in recent years between China and Russia and which has become more evident after the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Since then, Beijing has provided staunch diplomatic and economic support to Moscow but stopped short […]

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Russia and the West after Navalny

The death of Alexei Navalny, President Vladimir Putin’s most influential opponent, is deepening the chasm between Russia and the West, with unfathomable consequences for the future. The penitentiary administration states that he died of natural causes. At the same time, his family and friends claim he was deliberately killed, possibly due to Putin’s sudden change […]

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Putin’s broader war and his survival calculus

By September, it was clear that while the much-expected Ukrainian offensive didn’t create a breakthrough, neither did the ensuing Russian counteroffensive. Neither side has a decisive advantage over the other. Lawrence Freedman argued[1] convincingly that we must think about the definition of victory for Ukraine, as Kyiv is not set on marching on Moscow. The […]

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Putin out of the fog of war?

It is always tough to tell what’s what in the fog of war, and it has been even more challenging to forecast the results in a conflict where one side, Ukraine, is badly outnumbered by the other, Russia. Comparisons on paper told one story: Ukraine, without a real army 15 months ago, would be steamrolled […]

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Triangle impossible, India-China-US, and a different Silk Road

Russia’s failure in its invasion of Ukraine has weakened Moscow’s old ties with India, for decades a bedrock of Indian foreign relations, and brought to the fore the most complicated geopolitical puzzle of the “new Cold War” — between India, China, and the United States. New Delhi is shifting its position between the other two, […]

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Thanks, but no Tanks. Really?

The German decision to ask for more time to decide whether to supply Ukraine with Leopard tanks may actually have no teeth. After consultations and protracted pondering, Berlin could eventually decide to deliver the weapons. They are necessary to strike hard against the Russians in Kyiv’s long-announced spring offensive. It is not just about foreign […]