Is Putin a loser?

Some 140 million people in Russia need two things to “win” the war 1. support from their allies, and 2. the US stopping its backing of 30 million Ukrainians. It shows that Moscow is totally broke. Washington’s decision to halt some shipments of critical weapons to Ukraine is causing concern among Kyiv and US allies […]

Sketches for a US-China Strategy

President Donald Trump promised to end wars, not start them. Yet, he has announced what could become one of the most disruptive trade wars in history, shaking the foundations of global commerce. He stated he would impose sweeping tariff hikes—up to 60%—against imports from China, the nation he views as a strategic adversary, and 10% […]

Putin’s firing of the Middle East

A year after the October 7 massacre, Israel is stronger than ever, and its enemies are weaker than ever. Yet, as the shadows of wars cloud half of the world, politics lags behind weapons—except for Putin. A year after the brutal October 7 pogrom, the political situation surrounding Israel, the victim of the attack, is […]

A Game of Reality, Shadows and Feelings: Xi and Putin in Beijing

A game of reality and shadows, both true and both tricks for the eye of the beholder, was playing out in Beijing as Chinese President Xi Jinping welcomed Vladimir Putin, his Russian counterpart. No pomp was spared. Putin walked along red carpets that stretched across many of the 80 acres of Tiananmen Square. The central […]

Russia and the West after Navalny

The death of Alexei Navalny, President Vladimir Putin’s most influential opponent, is deepening the chasm between Russia and the West, with unfathomable consequences for the future. The penitentiary administration states that he died of natural causes. At the same time, his family and friends claim he was deliberately killed, possibly due to Putin’s sudden change […]

Putin’s broader war and his survival calculus

By September, it was clear that while the much-expected Ukrainian offensive didn’t create a breakthrough, neither did the ensuing Russian counteroffensive. Neither side has a decisive advantage over the other. Lawrence Freedman argued[1] convincingly that we must think about the definition of victory for Ukraine, as Kyiv is not set on marching on Moscow. The […]