The rise of multipolarity and the US demands for Iran’s unconditional surrender could spiral events out of control.

(We are experiencing technical difficulties, and the web doesn’t ‘like’ something about the date, but the article was actually published on March 8. Apologies)

Iran might have little incentive to concede to US demands until after the March 31 summit between Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping. Then, it could evaluate the outcomes and seek China’s support. It’s a risky gamble, but it might be a better option than the alternative. After the summit, will China believe America is stronger or weaker? Many factors could influence China’s assessment of Iran in one way or another.

By then, markets might become jittery, oil prices could spike, the Russians might step in, Gulf states could get cold feet, and Israel or the US might feel on shaky ground. 

If everything unfolds like this, within a month, regardless of the summit’s outcome, Iranian hardliners could regain the upper hand and say, “We’d better resist even longer.” Then Trump might lose his.

Russia, Venezuela, and Iran are warnings to Beijing, but the US doesn’t have an easy game with China.

A ghost will haunt China’s NPC annual plenary session, which opens on March 5 – the ghost of US military lightning successes against top leaders in Venezuela and Iran, and of Russia’s war failures.

Russian President Vladimir Putin is no longer a model. His attempt to escape Gorbachev’s “failure” to reform the USSR is no longer a path Beijing can follow. Moscow’s defeat at the hands of the small Ukrainian army is a testament to Putin’s fiasco.

There are short-term and long-term considerations for the 3,000 delegates assembled in the cavernous Great Hall of the People.

Short-term Chinese President Xi Jinping will have to consider how to approach his American counterpart, Donald Trump. He will come to Beijing on March 30, like in the wild west, with two scalps at his belt, that of Nicolas Maduro (Venezuela’s president captured on January 3) and of Ali Khamenei (Iran’s top leader killed on February 28). Both were friendly with.