The wars and the oil blockades may be waiting for Xi’s party congress. The US could face significant short-term trouble. China’s long-term future is uncertain. The EU hazard.

Just as Vladimir and Estragon waited for Godot in Beckett’s famous play, the world may now be waiting for Xi Jinping in the present political drama.

America is stuck in two wars. In Ukraine, it would like to reach a compromise with Russia. In the Middle East, it is trying to bring down Tehran’s regime, which backs many extremist groups in the region and blocks oil traffic through the Straits of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb. Both conflicts are creating an oil crisis unlike any seen in over 50 years and are driving President Donald Trump’s approval ratings down.

Trump could therefore be soundly defeated in the midterm vote on November 3, which, in theory, opens two scenarios. Either Trump contests the result at the ballot box, trapping the country in a devastating political fight that will drown America for months; or he accepts the outcome, and the new Democratic-majority Congress.

A complex thread connects Russia, Iran, Turkey, Israel, the Saudis, and the Houthis – the wars over the price of hydrocarbons at Western pumps. Jerusalem may need to reconsider its ties with Ankara.

It’s unclear whether it’s only shadow theater or something is truly moving behind all the recent posturing about Russia, Iran, and the Houthis on the eve of a tricky midterm election in the US.

US President Donald Trump announced a controversial agreement to supply Russian oil to the US. The agreement is intended to lower oil prices, but many doubt it will have any effect. Russia has diesel shortages due to Ukrainian bombings of Russian refineries.

Rumors circulate about lines at gas stations in Moscow, which is usually well supplied. People also say Russia is reimporting some Chinese diesel and that China is burning more coal to cover the shortfall. Russia may even import supplies from Iran through Caspian Sea ports.

In this situation, it’s doubtful Russia has any real diesel surplus to spare for America.

Moreover, the main.