China, and Gaza, and Ukraine

The conflicts in Gaza and Ukraine, even if they end soon, have set in motion dynamics from which there is no turning back. The EU and US must prepare for struggles extended in time and space. Beijing’s choices in the coming months will be crucial. A view from China is important because the tensions around […]

Putin’s broader war and his survival calculus

By September, it was clear that while the much-expected Ukrainian offensive didn’t create a breakthrough, neither did the ensuing Russian counteroffensive. Neither side has a decisive advantage over the other. Lawrence Freedman argued[1] convincingly that we must think about the definition of victory for Ukraine, as Kyiv is not set on marching on Moscow. The […]

War and Peace with Ukrainian Characteristics

Few in Washington seem overly worried about the apparent stalemate in Ukraine, where Kyiv’s forces can’t break through Russia’s fortified defenses. Meanwhile, America is entirely concentrated on the latest from China – complex malware reportedly able to cripple US cyber systems. According to The New York Times, which broke the story: “The discovery of the malware has […]

A European price to end the Ukrainian war

The only way “Old Europe” has to retain its clout is to stop its hesitations, decisively help Ukraine win its war quickly, and then find a future settlement for Russia fitting a Eurasian balance. Without it, France and Germany could pay a long-term high price. The Russian offensive in Ukraine is falling apart even before […]

Ukraine, EU, and Values: A Drama in Three Acts

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is recreating the bases of continental and transatlantic politics, but it is also helping to lay the foundation of a new system of values and traditions that unite more than yesterday a part of the world. Act I, Germany One of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s goals at the outset of the […]

From Peter the Great to Vladimir the Small?

The mobilization announced by Russian President Vladimir Putin on September 21 is not sure to bring a victory from the battered fields of Ukraine. Still, it declares loudly what a growing number of observers have been saying for months: that the “special operation” against Kyiv has failed and that Moscow has been defeated. Against this […]