Political fig leaves, Trump’s Chinese agenda, North Korea’s nuclear missiles, and the use of force. There are four distinct yet interconnected sets of problems fueling the ongoing Chinese rhetorical offensive against Japan over Taiwan. The island is, de facto independent but de jure part of one China, as the Republic of China (ROC), thus officially […]
Taiwanese Tightrope
Japan’s PM’s statement put Beijing in a tough spot regarding reunification — its national ideology. China needs to shift its mindset to get out of the predicament it’s in. China-Japan relations seem to have been repaired after Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s comments on Taiwan. A Japanese envoy visited China to offer an apology. Takaichi […]
Taiwan and China’s Exceptionalism
Tokyo’s statement on the island and its security reveals an open wound: China’s ambitions in the East China Sea, amid increasing regional hostility, and the outcome remains very uncertain. The Japanese PM Sanae Takaichi’s recent statement on Taiwan (the island, de facto independent but de jure part of one China) shifted Asian and global dynamics […]
China’s Military Coups?
It’s the largest PLA purge in the history of the People’s Republic of China. Officially, it’s all blamed on corruption, but something is unclear, and Taiwan’s strategy may have changed in the meantime. The most notable development from this week’s Party Plenum is the large-scale purge of the PLA (People’s Liberation Army). Here’s a brief […]
Trump’s Taoist Solution
The situation is explosive, but Trump has a way out—do nothing, wu wei. It’s easier than pushing for something that grows harder by the day. An unstable mix of long- and short-term pulls is stoking tensions and bringing everyone closer to an unpredictable blast. Short-term US hesitation and zig-zags put many countries close to the […]
The State of China, the Party, and Democracy
The country’s future, the CPC, and democracy are at stake in Beijing’s drive for reunification with Taiwan. Now more than ever, sweeping them under the carpet won’t be easy. In what state is the Chinese state? For centuries, China was not a state like its European counterparts. England, Spain, France, or Germany and the Holy […]
Taiwan to the polls: elections take centre stage in China-US international diplomacy
Taiwan heads to the polls. On Saturday 13 January, the de facto independent island, which China wants to ‘reunify’, will elect a new president and parliament. An estimated 19.3 million voters have been called to the polls. The election, which is being closely watched by the international community, could reshape relations between Taipei and Beijing, […]



