A 15-day truce will give Trump time to go to Beijing and stabilize the markets. But the crisis offers many lessons about political intelligence and the new limits of war. Oil is resuming its flow through the Strait of Hormuz, markets will calm down, and so will inflation, at least for now. Iran accepted a […]
The US is in a tough spot with Hormuz, but China has recently gotten involved, and its situation might not be much better. A few days ago, a Chinese netizen calling himself laohu (tiger) posted a video that went viral. It told Iranians they could search for heat traces in the sky using infrared spectrum, […]
Hormuz is a wrench in the global energy mechanism. It can’t break the global system, but it could very well break Iran. America has a new deadline: May 10th, when President Donald Trump said he will be in Beijing. By that date, the war in Iran may or may not be over. If it is […]
A Book review, Two Paths to Prosperity: Culture and Institutions in Europe and China, 1000-2000 by Avner Greif, Guido Tabellini, Joel Mokyr The book offers a truly convincing answer to an enigma that has troubled me for at least 30 years. That is, China is not deaf or blind; it’s not that it hadn’t heard or seen the Western […]
What is the US goal, and what is the narrative of the current war in Iran? This might be the key to the war at this stage. Is the goal to control the Strait of Hormuz? If so, that’s really hard because the strait is controlled by land on both sides. To take control of […]
China and Iran are short-circuiting the American agenda. US President Donald Trump said he might delay his summit in Beijing with President Xi Jinping because of the ongoing war in Iran. Dennis Wilder, a former White House expert on China, reportedly said it would be bad optics if Trump met with Xi while the US […]
Iraq and Iran, barely separated by a consonant’s ending, are close even in alphabetical order, bringing back many memories. China may require a major political shift. It was impossible in the past 50 years because power was dispersed. It might now be possible since President Xi Jinping has concentrated all the power. However, they could […]
