A 15-day truce will give Trump time to go to Beijing and stabilize the markets. But the crisis offers many lessons about political intelligence and the new limits of war. Oil is resuming its flow through the Strait of Hormuz, markets will calm down, and so will inflation, at least for now. Iran accepted a […]
The Iraq-Iran war 40 years ago should have revealed the vulnerability of the Strait and Tehran’s determination. It’s pointless to shift the blame to NATO. Years ago, Western nations already faced the start of a crisis related to the transit of hydrocarbons from the Persian Gulf — vital to our economy — through the bottleneck […]
The US is in a tough spot with Hormuz, but China has recently gotten involved, and its situation might not be much better. A few days ago, a Chinese netizen calling himself laohu (tiger) posted a video that went viral. It told Iranians they could search for heat traces in the sky using infrared spectrum, […]
What is the US goal, and what is the narrative of the current war in Iran? This might be the key to the war at this stage. Is the goal to control the Strait of Hormuz? If so, that’s really hard because the strait is controlled by land on both sides. To take control of […]
(US intervention in the Middle East and its plans on the Indo-Pacific might have something to learn from Mao’s strategy about Japan in 1937. Eventually, Japan was defeated, and Mao took power in China.) In the spring of 1938, 88 years ago, Mao Zedong gave a set of three talks titled On Protracted War. It […]
China and Iran are short-circuiting the American agenda. US President Donald Trump said he might delay his summit in Beijing with President Xi Jinping because of the ongoing war in Iran. Dennis Wilder, a former White House expert on China, reportedly said it would be bad optics if Trump met with Xi while the US […]
Iraq and Iran, barely separated by a consonant’s ending, are close even in alphabetical order, bringing back many memories. China may require a major political shift. It was impossible in the past 50 years because power was dispersed. It might now be possible since President Xi Jinping has concentrated all the power. However, they could […]
