The Trump-Putin summit puts Xi Jinping in an impossible situation, trying to double-guess both. It all started from wrong assessments of the international situation. Perhaps China should stop fighting Buddha’s fingers and instead try to become Buddha.
The summit between the US and Russian Presidents Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin will be held in Alaska, the land Russia ceded to the United States in 1867, at the end of the American Civil War. It was about England. In the mid-1860s, Moscow had cast its eyes on Central Asia, where it was vying with England, which had supported the defeated Confederate States and controlled Canada, surrounding Alaska. Then, with Alaska, Russia was not only selling land for cash but also buying American support against Britain in the global competition.
At the next Trump-Putin summit, Chinese President Xi Jinping will be the elephant in the room. They will be discussing Ukraine, and they’ll mean China. Will Putin convey a line agreed upon with China, or will he act alone, and how? Will Russia lie to China about the meeting? The USA and Russia may also fail to find a balance point on the war in Ukraine, or Ukraine and Europe can refuse the results of the Alaskan summit. Still, the meeting will certainly stir the waters with China and Asia.
Additionally, how will China react after the summit, especially as it anticipates the upcoming meeting with Trump, likely scheduled for October? For both Russia and China, it could be an existential matter.
It could be a significant setback for China, occurring at a time when Liu Jianchao, the foreign minister of the Party, was reportedly detained. It’s hard to believe that the two events are unrelated. The Minister of Foreign Affairs, Qin Gang, lost his job two years ago. Similarly, the Ministry of Defense underwent significant upheavals, marked by the demotions of two ministers, Li Shangfu and Dong Jun, and the purge of dozens of generals.
The underlying problem is that, over the past four to five years, China has consistently misjudged foreign affairs—on COVID, betting that the Western world would be overwhelmed by refusing lockdowns; with the Russian invasion of Ukraine, believing Moscow would soon conquer Kyiv; and during Hamas’ attack on Israel, thinking the Muslim world would stand firmly with the Palestinian cause.
During this period, China launched many initiatives—expanding and strengthening BRICS, reaching out to neighboring countries, and engaging with friends in the US and EU. However, this also involved numerous misjudgments.
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In any event, can Russia give up China? Will Russia offer the US a double bargain—for itself and China?
Russia is in a tough position, more complex than ever, possibly since its founding. It lost much influence in Europe. It’s losing Central Asia to China, and it might be losing Siberia to Beijing as well. The moment China senses that Russia offers a deal to the US that Beijing dislikes, Beijing could take over Siberia. Moscow could find itself collapsing into a two-front attrition in Europe with Ukraine and in Asia with China.
If Russia sells China off to the US, can Moscow regain some influence in Asia? And what would the US aim to gain from concessions to its rivals?
But this is only part of the problem. In October, even if Trump wanted to negotiate with China, a crucial element for Beijing would be knowing clearly what kind of deal Trump had struck with Putin. But it’s practically impossible for China to be sure, and can Xi trust Trump—a man who can change his mind in a heartbeat?
China’s predicament is like that of the monkey Sun Wukong fighting the fingers of Buddha in the classical novel Journey to the West. The real point for Sun—and Xi—is not martial arts or to fight Buddha, but to become Buddha. But to do so, one must become good, holy, and stop being a war-mongering monkey. Only China should truly understand what Buddha is in the present world. It could be complex and troubling. For this reason, China could be very cautious.
Meanwhile, the world is changing fast. The US indeed picked the transactional Trump as its President. Still, the Catholic Church—much more and much less than the US in this world—chose an American Pope, Leo XIV, committed to preserving and promoting the liberal order that had hinged on America for over a century. (see here).
