Japan’s PM’s statement put Beijing in a tough spot regarding reunification — its national ideology. China needs to shift its mindset to get out of the predicament it’s in.
China-Japan relations seem to have been repaired after Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s comments on Taiwan. A Japanese envoy visited China to offer an apology. Takaichi stated that Chinese military actions or blockades against the island, which is de facto independent but de jure part of China, would be viewed as an existential threat.
There is one more scar in the history of the two countries. Yet, the wound is still bleeding. Japan has nothing to “unsay”. Chinese military actions or blockades against Taiwan would trigger a global upheaval much greater than the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This reality exists regardless of Takaichi’s statement.
In theory, China also has no interest in an escalation spiraling out of control. Beijing sought a symbolic gesture from Japan, and the Japanese envoy, bowing before a dismissive Chinese official in Mao’s suit, provided it. But overall, the cat is out of the bag; the significant international complications of a Taiwan reunification are clear. Either the world accepts China’s exceptionalism, or China conforms to global rules. But the world can hardly have two exceptionalisms, American and Chinese. If Chinese exceptionalism prevails, the American one is finished. Can China establish its exceptionalism without war?
Moreover, Takaichi’s statement broke some underlying unspoken Chinese assumptions.
Beijing acts as if Taiwan is already part of its territory, so any statement about it is viewed as interference in China’s internal affairs. China believes that without the threat of military action, Taiwan will declare independence, especially since it apparently judges that its system does not attract the Taiwanese.
China is walking a tightrope. Taiwan’s reunification is a national goal, but if Beijing pushes too hard, it has two options: seize the island (which could lead to war and possibly defeat, causing a serious political crisis) or retreat (which could lead to internal accusations of being weak with foreigners and as a traitor—historically, the main triggers of uprisings).
Therefore, Beijing can’t afford a war or a retreat, so what?
Before Takaichi’s statement, all of this was swept under the rug, but now it’s out in the open. So, what should be done about it? There’s an ongoing effort to try to hide these facts, but they’re out there and will carry more weight in the future because everyone knows they are true. This, in turn, makes Beijing more irritated, creating a vicious circle.
Furthermore, dozens of Chinese generals have been purged, and new commanders might lack full confidence. The political leadership might also not completely trust them. As a result, military decisions could become highly politicized and less based on military experience, increasing the risk of escalation. Someone might order missile launches not just based on tactical or strategic military assessments. Things could quickly spiral out of control.
The real path forward should be to convince Taiwan and the world that reunification won’t cause major disruption; instead, it will be advantageous and agreeable for everyone. Or it should give up on it and seek another development path. To achieve this, China may need a different approach and can’t rely on buying favors or issuing threats to reach its national goals.
Interessante e in un certo senso rassicurante questa analisi che indica una strada di dialogo verso possibili nuovi sviluppi.
Interessante e in un certo senso rassicurante questa analisi che indica una strada di dialogo possibile.
“A Japanese envoy visited China to offer an apology”
That was just an account, not apology at all.