China is hedging its bet on Russia and might signal it’s willing to find a way out, but the US can’t ignore Beijing’s stakes in Moscow.
Until a few months ago, the Ukrainian ambassador to China was shunned by all Beijing’s departments; then, on February 13, 2026, China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi met with Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference.
The official Xinhua News Agency reported (here): “Last year, China-Ukraine trade grew steadily, with China remaining as Ukraine’s largest trading partner and the largest source of imports… China is ready to provide new humanitarian assistance to Ukraine and hopes that the Ukrainian side will continue to ensure the safety of Chinese personnel and institutions in Ukraine.” (italics mine)
Chinese humanitarian aid to Ukraine on the eve of the fourth anniversary of the war appears to be a testament to the conflict’s outcome. Even China, the staunchest and most important supporter of the Russian war effort, has doubts about the endgame and wants to balance and hedge its bets.
It is also a message for US President Donald Trump, who is now massing troops around Iran, ready to strike the Islamic Republic. It seems to say that China is willing to avoid supporting Tehran and will keep away from significant intervention.
It’s mixed with hints that China may actually provide help to Iran (see here). It’s all unspoken, it’s all brinkmanship, it’s the political poetry of the Chinese mind.
Nevertheless, it should serve as a warning to Russia. China is ready to let the US strike Iran and is not fully sure about what Russia could deliver in the future fight. It would be high time for Russian President Vladimir Putin to find a way out of the present predicament.
There is no way to sugarcoat it: Russia has lost, and even those with a clearer picture of the Russian reality, the Chinese, know it. In four years of war, it has made little territorial gain but has likely suffered over one million casualties. Its economy is in tatters, and its society is on the verge of collapse. It’s more internationally isolated than ever and is practically cut off from its main source of capital and development – the rest of continental Europe.
There is no easy way to recover from this. There is only one decision to surrender. This can be conditional with Americans and Europeans, or it will lead to even greater political and economic losses, culminating in an unconditional surrender in one, two, or three years. It is just a matter of wisdom.
There are two big question marks here. One concerns Putin’s future and what will happen to him. It is good for everyone if the big man of Russia can land softly. The second concerns who will be at the peace table, overtly or covertly.
For about three years, Russia has been unable to decide on its own. China holds together its economy, and it cannot be ignored in a peace deal; if it pulls the plug on Russia, Western help won’t come soon enough or in sufficient amounts to prevent a Russian meltdown.
China may be subtly suggesting that the future of Russia should be discussed in Beijing rather than in Moscow. Beijing, of course, is tiptoeing on this issue, as it doesn’t want to step on too many Russian toes.
However, Trump’s trip to Beijing at the end of March could be an opportunity to monitor for signs and to broach the subject of Russia’s future with Beijing.
China will not allow Russia to flip overnight and become a US ally, which would surround China. But facing an impossible situation in Moscow, Chinese President Xi Jinping might be amenable to mediated solutions. A protracted, desperate war in Russia is bleeding China and Russia alike, and Xi might be ready to stop the bleeding and turn a new page on this situation.
This may complicate America’s approach to both Russia and China, yet it may also open the door to a truce between China and the United States that goes beyond trade.
