Kim’s Kingdom against Asia
The 4th Kim to ascend to the North Korean throne foils all hopes of reunification with the South and unravels the region’s current political geography.
With the reported appointment of a fourth Kim as ruler, North Korea has de facto become the first absolute hereditary monarchy of modern times. It’s not a legacy of the past, as in the kingdom of Nepal. It’s a new invention in which old ancestral shamanic cults are enmeshed with new Marxist rhetoric.
The combination is hardly comprehensible, making it hard to think about how to talk to North Koreans. On top of that, North Korea has a vast nuclear arsenal, with perhaps 150 warheads mounted on missiles capable of hitting any part of the United States.
These days, its leader, Kim Jong-un, in his early 40s, is about to announce that his 13-year-old daughter, Kim Ru-ae, will be his heir apparent. It will be the first time that a child, barely a teenager, will be one finger away from the button that could trigger an atomic apocalypse.
It’s hard to imagine how the United States can engage with this logic, which, to the rest of the world, sounds delusional. But it’s even harder to imagine that America, especially now as it reclaims its greatness, could do without engaging this huge potential threat and danger.
Over the past three decades, the United States has gained extensive experience engaging North Korea and will surely find the right way to talk to Kim. However, North Korea has always been transactional. Its military buildup is not only used to protect itself against perceived threats but also to extract favors and revenues from friends and foes alike. So, the question is, what does North Korea want with its nuclear buildup? Currently, there are not many clear answers.
Also, the nuclear buildup creates a new environment for South Korea. Together with the hereditary dictatorship, it makes a future reunification of the peninsula impossible. In the foreseeable future, it’s impossible to imagine that, short of toppling the Kims, 1. a Kim dynasty could rule one Korea; 2. South Korea could accommodate the Kim role within a unitary Korea.
Therefore, the dream of reunification, held by many South Koreans for 80 years, must be forfeited. South Korea needs to break free of the old pattern for possible Korean reunification. It could be a massive shock to South Koreans raised on the nationalist dream of a single state reaching the Chinese border. It could cause a cultural and political earthquake in Seoul.
This, together with the growing Chinese closeness to Pyongyang, de facto pushes Seoul toward Japan in a more radical way than in the past decades. Since the end of WWII and especially since the end of the Cold War, an undercurrent of attrition has marked relations between Korea and Japan because of Japan’s occupation of the Korean Peninsula.
It also casts the role of the Korean minority in Japan, historically linked to either South Korea or North Korea, in a new light. Their status has been the subject of discussion and controversy in Japan and Korea because of their experience and, in fact, the dream of Korean reunification. If Korean reunification has to be forfeited, another issue arises: the Korean minority in Japan. Can they be a new glue between Japan and Korea, or remain an old fissure? And the pro-North Korean minority could become a dangerous fifth column.
Perhaps the US, along with South Korea and Japan, should take note of the new reality, fully acknowledge the nuclear-armed kingdom, and start from there. This will mean that South Korea needs to rethink its politics and acknowledge that it will remain a de facto island for many more years and will necessarily remain linked to Japan. This could also pose a new challenge for Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi.
It could all become quite problematic for Beijing. Closer ties between South Korea, Japan, and the US could make life uncomfortable for China. Still, Beijing can’t let Pyongyang go, especially since it has Moscow’s strong backing (see also here). Moreover, an easy play could be to use North Korea as a scarecrow against other countries in the region. All in all, if China doesn’t think outside the box, it could be pushed toward tighter ties with Pyongyang, while much of the rest of Asia could rally around the US. Both trends might be unpleasant for Chinese ambitions.
With the reported appointment of a fourth Kim as ruler, North Korea has de facto become the first absolute hereditary monarchy of modern times. It’s not a legacy of the past, as in the kingdom of Nepal. It’s a new invention in which old ancestral shamanic cults are enmeshed with new Marxist rhetoric.
The combination is hardly comprehensible, making it hard to think about how to talk to North Koreans. On top of that, North Korea has a vast nuclear arsenal, with perhaps 150 warheads mounted on missiles capable of hitting any part of the United States.
These days, its leader, Kim Jong-un, in his early 40s, is about to announce that his 13-year-old daughter, Kim Ru-ae, will be his heir apparent. It will be the first time that a child, barely a teenager, will be one finger away from the button that could trigger an atomic apocalypse.
It’s hard to imagine how the United States can engage with this logic, which, to the rest of the world, sounds delusional. But it’s even harder to imagine that America, especially now as it reclaims its greatness, could do without engaging this huge potential threat and danger.
Over the past three decades, the United States has gained extensive experience engaging North Korea and will surely find the right way to talk to Kim. However, North Korea has always been transactional. Its military buildup is not only used to protect itself against perceived threats but also to extract favors and revenues from friends and foes alike. So, the question is, what does North Korea want with its nuclear buildup? Currently, there are not many clear answers.
Also, the nuclear buildup creates a new environment for South Korea. Together with the hereditary dictatorship, it makes a future reunification of the peninsula impossible. In the foreseeable future, it’s impossible to imagine that, short of toppling the Kims, 1. a Kim dynasty could rule one Korea; 2. South Korea could accommodate the Kim role within a unitary Korea.
Therefore, the dream of reunification, held by many South Koreans for 80 years, must be forfeited. South Korea needs to break free of the old pattern for possible Korean reunification. It could be a massive shock to South Koreans raised on the nationalist dream of a single state reaching the Chinese border. It could cause a cultural and political earthquake in Seoul.
This, together with the growing Chinese closeness to Pyongyang, de facto pushes Seoul toward Japan in a more radical way than in the past decades. Since the end of WWII and especially since the end of the Cold War, an undercurrent of attrition has marked relations between Korea and Japan because of Japan’s occupation of the Korean Peninsula.
It also casts the role of the Korean minority in Japan, historically linked to either South Korea or North Korea, in a new light. Their status has been the subject of discussion and controversy in Japan and Korea because of their experience and, in fact, the dream of Korean reunification. If Korean reunification has to be forfeited, another issue arises: the Korean minority in Japan. Can they be a new glue between Japan and Korea, or remain an old fissure? And the pro-North Korean minority could become a dangerous fifth column.
Perhaps the US, along with South Korea and Japan, should take note of the new reality, fully acknowledge the nuclear-armed kingdom, and start from there. This will mean that South Korea needs to rethink its politics and acknowledge that it will remain a de facto island for many more years and will necessarily remain linked to Japan. This could also pose a new challenge for Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi.
It could all become quite problematic for Beijing. Closer ties between South Korea, Japan, and the US could make life uncomfortable for China. Still, Beijing can’t let Pyongyang go, especially since it has Moscow’s strong backing (see also here). Moreover, an easy play could be to use North Korea as a scarecrow against other countries in the region. All in all, if China doesn’t think outside the box, it could be pushed toward tighter ties with Pyongyang, while much of the rest of Asia could rally around the US. Both trends might be unpleasant for Chinese ambitions.
