A nuclear arsenal could be turned over to a kid – 13-year-old Kim Ju-an is about to become North Korea’s heir apparent, with unfathomable consequences for China as well. The US has a role.
About 20 years ago, the then North Korean paramount leader, Kim Jong-il, brought his youngest son, Kim Jong-un, to Beijing to seek Chinese blessing for Kim Jong-un’s succession.
According to the rumors of the time, Beijing was reluctant. They thought that having two Kims in a row as leaders of a country was enough (Kim Jong-il succeeded his father, Kim Il-sung, the founder of North Korea, with Soviet support). A third Kim would make North Korea a monarchy in everything but name.
However, Kim Jong-il insisted and eventually got what he wanted. China was essential to North Korea’s survival, as it was then the only support from the outside world.
Now, 20 years later, Kim Jong-un is reportedly about to announce that his 13-year-old daughter, Kim Ru-ae, will be the heir to Pyongyang’s throne. She is the first woman in this dynasty, and she’s only 13, much younger than when Kim was presented to Beijing.
The international situation, however, is very different. North Korea is less isolated. It receives support from Russia and China. In fact, the 50,000 troops it sent to fight in Ukraine may have brought Pyongyang new technology for its missiles and nuclear warheads. By the end of the decade, North Korea might have 300 nuclear warheads on ballistic missiles capable of hitting virtually every part of the United States.
It is possible that in a few years, she may sit on this immensely lethal arsenal. The father, although young, possibly in his early 40s, may have suffered a heart attack or a stroke five years ago. He’s definitely overweight and allegedly still drinking.
For many years, the United States, Japan, South Korea, China, and Russia engaged with North Korea in a futile effort to denuclearize Pyongyang. Clearly, it didn’t work. And clearly, the world now needs a new strategy.
North Korea could be the wildest card in an extremely volatile geopolitical environment – it is a hermit country, and people really don’t know much about what is going on. Therefore, it is possible that Pyongyang could play the mad dog of North Asia, either pretending to attack or actually attacking South Korea or Japan, two powerhouses of the global economy.
Those threats alone could crash those markets and trigger a financial crisis. The North Korean threat is far greater than that of Iran, and North Koreans are even less transparent than Iranians. North Koreans are notoriously difficult to engage in an honest conversation.
The urgency to appoint a 13-year-old as heir may be due to two reasons:
1. His father’s health is not too good.
2. It will take a long time to appoint a woman as head of state in a leadership position where only men are present.
Will Kim Jong-un, when thinking of his daughter, be inclined to seek a solution with the outside world to stop threatening everyone and be readmitted to the world? There is a bigger picture here, and the first question, which is unclear, concerns the United States.
From Pyongyang, do North Koreans believe America is still strong or that China will replace it, as Beijing repeats? Does Pyongyang believe the US is only concentrating on itself and that it’s ready to abandon Asia?
One element in this equation will be the war in Ukraine. North Koreans have had firsthand experience of the Russian situation and could assess better than many others how Moscow is faring after four years of fighting. If Moscow is ready to keep fighting, willing to compromise, or simply crumble, what will it do?
Certainly, Russia is not winning. After four years of fighting, it has little to show but more than one million casualties. Its economy is falling apart. It is now more than ever hooked on China, as it was during the Mongol Golden Horde’s control of Moscow in the 15th century.
Moreover, Kim Jong-un took his daughter to Beijing last year, indicating he received Beijing’s blessing for the succession, possibly with greater ease than 20 years earlier.
Mao Zedong wanted his son, Mao Anying, to succeed him, but he was killed in the Korean War. Is Chinese President Xi Jinping considering having one of his siblings succeed him, or is someone suggesting it?
This is not just about royalty but about loyalty to power. In ancient China, ample documents show that, in an early period, succession was not by blood but by selecting the successor. Then blood succession prevailed with an element of choice — the emperor had many children, and he would choose one among them.
Blood succession prevailed for political reasons of continuity, not just greed. It ensured that the successor wouldn’t upend the legacy of the previous ruler but would continue it, giving stability to the realm.
China may look back and find elements of that, too. Deng completely turned the page on Mao. Will Xi’s successor shelve Xi’s changes? Xi, a blood heir, also has a daughter, which could provide continuity and thus stability.
Of course, over a hundred years after the fall of the Empire, going back to it could be hard, but someone might suggest it to undermine Xi. Or Xi and some of its people might genuinely be interested in the idea. Anyway, the young Ju-ae succession affects China.
Here, an American element could play a role. The United States was the first lasting republic of modernity. The US replaced the continuity provided by a king, a man, with that provided by a set of institutions. The US has proved to be the most durable and stable country in the past 250 years of the modern world. It even underwent a massive civil war and emerged stronger than ever without reverting to a monarchy.
Yet now the US seems to be in an existential crisis. Many American intellectuals say the republican institutions are outdated, and some even express admiration for more autocratic models and monarchy.
If the US itself is not confident in its politics, then China certainly cannot adopt them, and the Party might want to weigh its options. North Korean resilience, after 75 years of siege, can’t be tossed out the window on a whim. There is rationality behind a 13-year-old reaching the nuclear buttons and that could spin many things out of control.
On the other hand, it’s crucial for many in Asia and around the world what the US says and does.
