Netanyahu’s political mistakes in Gaza could have placed his country in new restrictions, making life harder for Jewish people and their allies worldwide. Meanwhile, a new Middle Eastern political landscape is emerging.
Giuseppe Cucchi, a seasoned expert on the Middle East, explains that Iran’s defeat against Israel over the past two years has resulted in the rise of four competing powers in the region — Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Qatar.
The new Abraham Accord, which has been expanded to include Pakistan, Indonesia, and Kazakhstan, enhances Israel’s position within a new regional framework. For the first time in 80 years, it excludes the old Moscow’s shadow and the new Beijing’s inroads. But Israel was unable to attend the peace ceremony in Sharm el-Sheikh, despite doing nearly all the heavy lifting against Tehran’s proxies in Gaza, Lebanon, Syria, Yemen, and Iran.
The problem is that the heavy lifting didn’t match a soft strategy. Demonstrations, press campaigns, graphic footage of the bombing, and the angry venting of some Israeli politicians put Israel in an almost “media-eval” ghetto. The Israeli government is seen as bad, and therefore, all Israelis and all Jews are implicated. Their friends are warned: either they distance themselves from Israel, or they will be cast out.
Israel, then, is some kind of necessary evil—skilled in fighting, tech, and with money—but cannot be trusted with real politics, and therefore cannot be part of the larger division of the regional spoils. This is better than decades of official exclusion. Powers in the region often pretended to ignore that Israel existed and officially called for its end.
Now, the significant yet non-resolutive Abraham Accord grants recognition of Israel alongside two new phenomena – a new wave of antisemitism spreading across Europe and the United States, and Islamic countries finally breaking free from their old ties to Palestinian-inspired terrorism or bitter anti-Israeli opposition. Wealthy Arabs and the Islamic world at large now seem to be cleansed of the old sin of supporting anti-American or pro-Soviet organizations like al-Qaeda or the PLO.
Therefore, no one wants Hamas, but the crude intervention in Gaza shut Israeli international opportunities and paved the way for a particular American and European right that has never stopped being antisemitic.
A certain left opposes Israel because of an anti-American legacy. But the right has something even more sinister; it echoes the dark centuries of Europe, when Jews were confined in ghettos and periodically slaughtered as scapegoats.
The new right wing has revived the old alliance with Arab antisemitism. Behind it, there are longstanding questions of money and power. Indeed, Muslim conservatism seeks to limit Israel’s victory and its success.
All of this has many old causes, but recent mistakes triggered them. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu ran the wrong political campaign. In the fight against Hamas, he did not present a broader political outlook relevant to the global political scene. (see also here)
Amid this, US journalist Tucker Carlson’s interview with white nationalist Nick Fuentes revealed a dangerous and complex relationship between the right and antisemitism. A recent public event by the Center for American Progress highlighted the surge of antisemitism.
But more than just numbers, Carlson’s role is significant. He is not an ordinary man. He observed and supported the rise to power of President Donald Trump in his second term, which was much more revolutionary than his first. Carlson’s new position shows us that, regardless of poll numbers, antisemitism is widespread, and many people now fear being associated with or friends with Jews.
New antisemitism doesn’t occur in isolation. There are new layers of discomfort and both legitimate and illegitimate opposition to the Israeli Government’s actions that create a space where antisemitism gains more ground, making it harder for the USA to back Netanyahu.
While the US may have previously been fully supportive of Israel, it now seems willing to sacrifice a small degree of Israeli favor to garner more backing from Islamic countries. This change is understandable for the US, and if Israel doesn’t act quickly, the gap with the US might widen.
Israeli mistakes and the US’s challenges in maintaining its alliance with the old Middle East partner should have created opportunities for China. It didn’t happen. China aligned with Russia and partially with Iran and initially opposed Israel during the start of the war. As a result, despite increasing Western antisemitism and regional tensions among emerging local powers, China lost significant influence in the region. Beijing failed to grasp the nuances of the new international dynamics at play.
Israel has more diplomatic savvy than China and overlooked them, so Beijing may be justified in overlooking them too. But ultimately, Israel has come out as a winner, stronger than before, even though the challenges are greater and more complex. For Beijing, missing out on the Islamic world (on top of Israel), especially with a restless Muslim minority at home and deep-seated anti-Muslim prejudices, might be a different story.
