Russia, Venezuela, and Iran are warnings to Beijing, but the US doesn’t have an easy game with China.
A ghost will haunt China’s NPC annual plenary session, which opens on March 5 – the ghost of US military lightning successes against top leaders in Venezuela and Iran, and of Russia’s war failures.
Russian President Vladimir Putin is no longer a model. His attempt to escape Gorbachev’s “failure” to reform the USSR is no longer a path Beijing can follow. Moscow’s defeat at the hands of the small Ukrainian army is a testament to Putin’s fiasco.
There are short-term and long-term considerations for the 3,000 delegates assembled in the cavernous Great Hall of the People.
Short-term Chinese President Xi Jinping will have to consider how to approach his American counterpart, Donald Trump. He will come to Beijing on March 30, like in the wild west, with two scalps at his belt, that of Nicolas Maduro (Venezuela’s president captured on January 3) and of Ali Khamenei (Iran’s top leader killed on February 28). Both were friendly with Beijing.
In the long term, the problem is that if Russia is no longer a political model, what should Beijing do about the US? Its example remains unpalatable and is widely considered a letdown among Chinese leaders. In any case, there could be talk of strategic changes, but the direction of those changes remains unclear.
North Korea Dream
Many eyes could turn toward Pyongyang. Iran and Venezuela’s fates vindicate North Korea, which pursued a nuclear defense and still survives. China could be inclined to think that, after all, Pyongyang is a route to follow. Still, up to a point, because Russia’s predicament shows that a nuclear arsenal doesn’t prevent a conventional war or an economic siege. In a war, China might not fare much better than other US enemies, but it’s unlikely, though not impossible.
China is prepared for the threat of a trade siege. It accounts for about 50% of global industrial capacity, holds a virtual monopoly in the production of rare earths and processed metals, and has unparalleled advantages in the quality-price ratio for capital and consumer goods. Economic sanctions against China would first crash the world market.
But this lead won’t last forever, as the US and its allies are gearing up to shed their dependence on China. Then North Korea’s dire economic situation could loom clearer.
North Korea managed to remain internally stable because it transitioned seamlessly from the Middle Ages into a shamanic monarchy cloaked in Marxist paraphernalia. The Kim dynasty has enshrined its blood right to power in the constitution, and for ordinary people, the only way out of ordinary misery is the dream of getting closer to Kim’s grace.
China is very different. People have known for 50 years the wealth and liberty a free market and free society can provide. Turning the clock back is doable because the Chinese are meek, the West isn’t showing its best face, and it’s happening in slow motion, but it won’t be painless.
Delicate Visit
This might make Trump’s visit easier, but it requires greater subtlety. China is very different from Venezuela, Russia, or Iran. The US has a mighty military, but compared with China, a puny industrial capacity. Wars are ultimately fought with factories. The People’s Republic of China still churns out products for the US military-industrial complex and profits from it.
Therefore, although recent events are loud alarm bells, Beijing is not cornered. It has many cards to play, and its political ingenuity has been the hallmark of the past decade.
Trump needs to find the right touch with China. If he pushes too hard, he might be stonewalled and slip; if he is too easygoing, he might be seen as pliable, playable with trinkets and confetti.
After all, he’ll be there for just a few short years, while China thinks in decades. The Chinese are masters at it, and some might think that charming Trump with a short bout and putting off strategic reckoning could amount to a strategic win.
It’d be a mistake for China and for the US. For the US, because it would squander a hand it has gained, almost unknowingly. China would squander the real urgency to realize that there is something deeply wrong with its system and that it needs fixing to avoid, maybe in a not-so-distant future, very unpleasant outcomes.
