Trump achieved huge results in a few short months, but pressing for a Ukrainian deal against the EU starts a Russian domino effect that could end the US’s global role.
US President Donald Trump is proving to be very innovative and adaptable in his foreign policy. He broke old molds and achieved unexpected breakthroughs. He brokered a tough peace agreement in Gaza without China or Russia, and for the first time in their history, he’s balancing good relations with both India and Pakistan. Yet in Russia, there is little he can do.
Furthermore, regardless of Trump’s intentions toward Russia, some long-standing US concerns about Europe remain unaddressed. What is Europe doing for its security, and what is it doing in Asia? On both fronts, Europe is taking very few actions, even though it is the world’s second-largest economy. As a result, it becomes a burden for the United States in tough times.
Europe often claims it wants unified policies to stand up to the United States. This is music to the ears of the Chinese, who have long tried to pit the EU against the US. These vibes encourage the United States not to favor European unity but to oppose it.
American EU
A united Europe was an American invention, promoted after World War II and again after the Cold War ended. All were designed to hold back Russia. Today, the world faces its biggest challenge: how to manage China and engage with Asia, home to 60% of the global population. Now the US would need the EU to share the Asian burden. If the EU developed a unified policy aligned with the United States on Asia and China, the US could help foster greater European political unity.
If Europe united to help America, just as America has helped Europe for over a century, then America might not need to seek a relationship with Russia. It would be a completely different political game.
For over a decade, even before Moscow’s 2014 annexation of Crimea, America has been working to build a new relationship with Russia to address China. In theory, the idea is sound: combine US control of the seas with Russia’s reach into the heart of Eurasia. But politics are shaped by ideas that must match reality. The reality is that Russia disagrees and can’t be budged.
Over the past ten years, America’s relationship with Russia has worsened; in contrast, Russia’s relationship with China has improved. One key reason could be that Russian President Vladimir Putin does not trust the United States and instead believes that China is reliable and keeps its promises. America is too volatile with constant electoral changes.
It is a long-term issue, and it didn’t work for a long time. Now, amid such a controversial war, it is unrealistic to think of improving relations with Russia and wresting it away from Beijing’s embrace.
America’s inability to implement a positive Russia strategy creates an opportunity for Europe to develop its own policies toward America, Russia, and Asia. However, if Europe fails to establish such a policy—whether with or without Russia’s or Ukraine’s defeat—the journey toward political unity will slow down or reverse.
Russia’s hurdle
At this moment, the United States must realistically acknowledge that genuine progress with Russia is unlikely, while negotiations must continue.
The US must then revise its approach to Europe, or it may find it harder to manage both Europe and Russia. The US’s inability to engage with Russia makes it riskier to accelerate efforts against the EU. A fragmented Europe, without a strong internal unity backed by the US, would effectively hand Europe over to Russia and trigger a domino effect impacting America’s power worldwide.
Moreover, American unreliability—as perceived by Russia—makes the idea of aiding European disintegration more attractive to Moscow. By supporting specific anti-EU American trends in this direction, Russia could then gain political dominance over Europe. From this conquest, it might then move to exert increasingly significant influence within America itself. At that point, Moscow would become the moral and cultural center of much of the world, the true third Rome.
It might appear as a lengthy, intricate plot to change perceptions, distorting the truth with different but converging messages to the US and the EU, and influencing the final outcome. A Russian masterful mind game, beating a complex reality.
