Russia may wage a new hybrid war against the US to drive wedges domestically and internationally. The Alaska summit could be an example. Israel fell for a similar ruse with Hamas.
The Hamas October 7 massacre and kidnapping were not a desperate and senseless terrorist action; it’s now clear. It was the first step of a well-studied comprehensive strategy of a new kind of hybrid war that would hold the Palestinian people hostage, maximize Palestinian losses, and blame it all on Israel, which would be accused, riled, and pilloried for “genocide.”
Israeli Premier Benjamin Netanyahu went in thinking it was an old kind of war, but was surprised and ambushed by a multi-faceted communication and cognition offensive. It thus granted his enemy something unthinkable for 80 years—the normalization of anti-Semitism and the return of century-old anti-Jewish prejudice (see here).
Russian President Vladimir Putin might set the same trap for US President Donald Trump. Russia invented hybrid warfare and is a master of it. Does America understand it?
The verdict of the media world is unanimous. The recent summit in Alaska was a success for Putin, who received respect and understanding on sanctions from Trump. In return, Trump received little or nothing. He may have gained something else on another hidden agenda of the meeting—China (see here). But the public can’t and won’t know about it, and hence it doesn’t really exist in the communication world.
Moreover, the outcome may create disarray among US allies in both Europe and Asia, which could have significant practical implications. The perceived conciliatory attitude of the American government towards Russia is driving a wedge between the US and its allies. The network of allies has been for eight decades the greatest force of America. Furthermore, the US is also becoming more divided, with parts of the country militantly against Trump. Russia might drive both internal US divisions and external fissures among allies. It has the capabilities, and it would be in its national interests.
Without its allies, the US is just one country—more or less powerful, but representing only 4% of the world population, 26% of the global GDP, and 70% of the worldwide stock market. These numbers highlight both the greatness and the limits of American power. The rest of the world may want a bigger share of the US GDP and stock market. Without its allies, the US is isolated—an initial step toward being cut off.
The Carthaginian general Hannibal crossed the Alps in 218 BC. Qin Shi Huangdi unified China for the first time in 221 BC. His goal was to split Rome from its allies and carve Taranto out of the Roman embrace. Taranto had almost defeated Rome some 60 years earlier, and in 218, it was considered an uncertain Roman ally. Taranto didn’t turn to Hannibal, even after the masterpiece Battle of Cannae fought at its doorstep. Neither Rome broke after Cannae. It managed to field new legions calling on the unity of the city.
But Roman general Scipio, landing in Africa in 204 BC and defeating Hannibal at Zama two years later, managed to gain the support of the powerful ex-Carthaginian allies, the Numidians, who proved essential for Rome’s victory. Rome maintained its alliances and successfully won over the allies of its enemy. Conversely, the Carthaginians didn’t. Had Hannibal been able to hold on to the Numidian allies, history might have been different.
Driving a wedge between the US and its allies could be the ultimate Russian goal. Putin may be capable of pleading and sweet-talking someone in a meeting and then stabbing him in the back two minutes later. Is Putin behind the public campaign pillorying and riling Trump for his poor performance in Alaska? Is he trying to open fault lines within the American alliance?
Russian results in the war in Ukraine have been poor; strategically and politically, it has been a disaster. But for over three years, Russia has been able to deflect, deny, and sow discord in the Western world. Here—interestingly—those pro-Hamas are also pro-Russia.
This atmosphere of tension and disarray benefits China as it prepares for its summit with President Xi Jinping and Trump in October. China might have a lot to haggle over, despite being quite in the dark about what Putin told Trump.
Furthermore, the US is right to seek peace and diplomatic dialogue. Shutting down venues for talks won’t help solve the complex puzzles that every peace process demands. But dialogue and breaking with allies are two different things, just as granting Russia a crucial communication win that could spill over into other domains is.
