Russia’s play of Nixon in reverse

The thaw between China and India in Beijing grants Russia a major political victory, mainly delivered by the US’s fumbling and mismanagement. America needs to act fast and accurately to address the situation.

In 1972, Nixon’s trip to China didn’t end the Vietnam War, but it offset the political debacle there and put a different turn on the ongoing Cold War. It worked, although it still took a little time to materialize into a real collaboration against the USSR.
The American idea of engaging with Russian President Vladimir Putin was to have a Nixon in reverse—win Russia away from China’s embrace. The August 15 meeting between Putin and US President Donald Trump in Alaska failed to achieve the desired result, but at least one could see the effort in this direction.

Yet, the August 18 trip to India by Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi put a very different spin on the whole story. It looked as if Putin or Chinese President Xi Jinping were running circles around Trump. Not only did Putin not abandon Xi, but the two also managed to woo Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who on August 30 flew to Beijing, ending a tense relationship.

The Nixon paradigm did work in reverse, but differently from what the US had thought; that is, Moscow played Washington this time.

Surely, Modi is very cautious with China. He visited Japan first, stressing the strong bilateral bond. He called Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and pledged to work for peace with Moscow.

But August 31 was a sad moment for America—losing, at least partly, a crucial friend that took some 25 years to bring closer. It is a significant blow for Modi, who has staked his career on aligning with the Western camp through the Western military alliance, the Quad, and moving away from India’s traditional non-alignment policies.

Putin is the total winner of the day. He can explain Trump’s erratic behavior, boasting with Xi and Modi: I control Trump, stick with me, no need to talk with the Americans. True or not, it may look believable. Then anything can spin out of this spiel. Indeed, the next Trump-Xi summit, scheduled for October, could take place under a Russian cloud.

Is the US cornered? Trump needs to prove that Putin is not in control. It could be very tricky.

If the US doesn’t redress its ties with India well and quickly, the entire international fabric that has held the world together since WWII could begin to unravel. India’s sense of betrayal is felt to varying degrees by many US allies.

What is mind-boggling for many Asian diplomats is the reason behind the betrayal. It was reportedly a testy phone call, where Trump insisted Modi nominate him for the Nobel Peace Prize, as the US president had helped resolve the recent India-Pakistan clash (see here). The damage to the US is greater because the reasons are so small. It cast a deep shadow of unreliability.

Russia can boast a political victory greater than any it has achieved in Ukraine, and it has significant political leverage points from which it can upend the current world order.

China is a mixed bag. Its friction with the US moves to the background, but chaos in the world order threatens its trade, its main economic driver, possibly more than Trump’s tariffs. Russia may have an interest in chaos, and China may just be seeking a distraction.

Nothing is clear and set in stone. “The world’s two most populous countries need to be friends,” Xi Jinping told Modi on Sunday. Thus, it proves that there is still a long way to go between China and India.

Meeting on the sidelines of a Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit in the northern Chinese city of Tianjin, Xi reportedly told Modi that the two countries could be good neighbors and play a key part in the Global South.

The Chinese press highlights that the visit comes at a pivotal moment, as both countries work to resolve long-standing disputes and seek common ground amid growing strains in their relationship with the United States, the elephant in Beijing’s room. Beijing is also using the SCO summit as an opportunity to showcase its leadership and build solidarity among the Global South amid geopolitical challenges.

It’s a very different picture from the one seen from Washington.