Some 140 million people in Russia need two things to “win” the war 1. support from their allies, and 2. the US stopping its backing of 30 million Ukrainians. It shows that Moscow is totally broke.
Washington’s decision to halt some shipments of critical weapons to Ukraine is causing concern among Kyiv and US allies worldwide. The shipments were previously agreed upon and are deemed necessary to counter Russia’s escalating missile and drone attacks. America paused, saying its stockpiles are running low. It’s unclear whether the Europeans or other allies can step in and supply new arms.
Russia has welcomed the news. Russian President Vladimir Putin had a two-hour phone conversation with French President Emmanuel Macron in the same hours—after nearly three years of silence. Putin’s call could be seen as a sign that he’s willing to reopen dialogue about a peace deal, or that he’s just flaunting this possibility to buy time.
At the same time, North Korea has promised to send an additional 30,000 troops to Russia, bringing Pyongyang’s commitment to around 50,000—about 10% of Russian frontline forces.
North Korea’s aid is part of a broader support that Russia has been receiving since the start of the war from Iran and China. Iran’s support could be decreasing in the coming months due to its setbacks in the fight against Israel.
China has become Russia’s main economic partner. The two have set up unprecedented levels of coordination through trade in energy resources, electronics, chemicals, and transportation components. The relationship, however, is unbalanced. Moscow is more dependent on Beijing than Beijing is on Moscow.
Bilateral trade grew by nearly 30% in 2022, reaching $190 billion, then increased further to $240.11 billion in 2023. Growth slowed to just 1.9% in 2024—perhaps due to the impact of Western sanctions. The total for 2024 was $244.8 billion, with $129.32 billion in exports from Russia to China, and $115.49 billion in the other direction.
Beijing might be getting cold feet because, despite its backing and the US’s growing lukewarm support, Russia isn’t making any breakthroughs. Plus, China is in a tough spot. If it profits from bilateral trade, it could wear down relations in the medium and long term—Russians might start resenting China profiting from Moscow’s war efforts. If Beijing helps Russia without any return, it could hurt the already troubled Chinese economy.
This situation clearly shows Moscow’s huge weakness in absolute terms and against Ukraine.
Russia relies on support from China, North Korea, and Iran to keep fighting while Ukraine continues resisting, despite cuts in US aid.
In other words, to ‘win,’ Russia still needs ongoing support from its allies and for the US to halt its backing of Ukraine. Russia has a population of about 140 million, while Ukraine—embroiled in war—has fewer than 30 million. Yet, Moscow hasn’t managed to achieve a breakthrough in the war.
All this highlights Russia’s massive weakness and failure. Moscow had three goals in the invasion of Ukraine: break NATO’s unity, push the US out of European affairs, and take control of Ukraine. After over three years of war, the opposite happened: NATO gained two more members (Sweden and Finland), the US is more involved in Europe than ever, and Ukraine has built the strongest army on the continent.
Now, seeking ‘victory’ with increased help from struggling North Korea and less US support for Ukraine only proves that Russia is broke. Putin, to use popular American jargon, is a loser—while Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is a winner.
Perhaps, this new reality should sink in for Washington—does the US want to back a loser (who’s also an adversary) or a winner (who’s also an ally)?
