The last demotions wipe the slate clean of the old PLA leadership, calling into question Beijing’s past strategic assessments as well. It’s unclear what China will think in the future.
Official News Agency Xinhua announced on Saturday that Zhang Youxia, China’s highest-ranking general, second only to President Xi Jinping, and PLA (People’s Liberation Army) chief of staff Liu Zhenli have been placed under investigation for “serious discipline violations.” All members of the PLA Central Military Commission have been removed, leaving only Zhang Shengmin, promoted to the commission only last year and overseeing the purge since then.
For the first time, the PLA’s top echelons have been completely purged, underscoring President Xi’s power, but also raising many uncertainties about China’s future defense direction, as the US moves its forces toward Iran, threatening some form of attack against the Ayatollahs.
In October (here), I wrote that “The entire PLA seems to be under suspicion. The fate of Zhang Youxia, the first PLA vice chairman, remains uncertain… he has most likely been effectively moved aside”.
The size and scope of the purge show that, for the first time in its history, the PLA is no longer the party’s kingmaker, as it has been, but is now entirely under Party control. Its reasons remain unclear.
In October, I advanced the following hypothesis:
“What if the PLA really tried to do something “Lin Biao’s style”? In 1971, Mao’s designated successor, Lin Biao, attempted to stage a coup against Mao but was discovered and killed. What if some PLA members planned to launch an operation disguised as an invasion of Taiwan? The invasion might fail, and Xi could be blamed and possibly removed. This plot could eliminate Xi without risking a potential existential crisis for the party. The elders, now sidelined from decision-making, could be brought back in, and not only would Xi be removed, but the old collective leadership system could be restored. If well planned, a military loss of Taiwan might not necessarily lead to chaos but simply result in a leadership change. Perhaps, in this scenario, Xi found out and cleaned the deck. Or, given the paranoid Party climate, something along these lines might have been made up”.
As with Lin Biao, we may never know for sure. But certainly, China made several strategic mistakes in recent years. The PLA contributes to the national strategy, whereas the foreign ministry is tasked with communicating it to the outside world.
In 2022, China believed Russia would win in Ukraine within weeks, pushing the US out of Europe and ready to move out of Asia. Russia has been bogged down in a war for four years without significant results and with over a million casualties.
In early 2023, China underestimated the importance of the balloon fracas with the United States. A Chinese surveillance balloon flew over a US military base, prompting America to cancel a scheduled visit to Beijing by Secretary of State Anthony Blinken.
In October 2023, China sided with Hamas against Israel. Beijing believed that after the October 7 massacre, the entire Muslim world would unite against Israel. Hamas has been humiliated, the Muslim world has tacitly supported Israel, and Iran’s proxies backing Hamas have been defeated across the region.
Most recently, shortly before Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro’s capture, China believed that Venezuela’s defense would be strong enough to repel possible American attacks. Maduro was captured without any American casualties, and Venezuelan political direction has shifted in favor of the US.
All these errors have had a profound impact on China’s standing in the world.
It’s unclear who made these miscalculations and whether they have any impact on the current purge. But certainly, the PLA was involved in the process, and traditionally in China, if mistakes are made, someone will be held responsible.
The future is similarly unclear, but Beijing seems more prudent. Facing a possible American attack on Iran, China didn’t express support for the wobbling Ayatollah’s regime. Apparently, China realized that, whatever the outcome in Tehran, it’d be better to wait out events and see what happened. This less hawkish attitude might be necessary as Xi prepares to host US President Donald Trump in Beijing in April and wow and woo him with a show of might and attention.
