How do you square the US with the Holy See? The meeting in Rome was a step forward, but there is still a long way to go. Trump should have no interest in picking a fight with the Vatican.
The Vatican, the paladin of peace, doesn’t want war or hostility with anyone, certainly not with the United States. At the same time, peace with the US can’t mean the Vatican has to go to war with everyone else. Here, in a nutshell, is the Pope’s position yesterday during his meeting with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio.
After Rubio’s visit, the Vatican issued a brief communique containing a peculiar sentence. The Holy See stated it “shared commitment to cultivating good bilateral relations between the Holy See and the United States of America”. In other times, this would have gone without saying.
Between the Holy See and the US administration, there is distance, and perhaps the Vatican still fears further “strange” declarations, such as the ones against the Pope by US President Donald Trump.
On the positive side, the parties seem to have found a bandwidth to communicate, something that didn’t work in recent months. The two sides do not need to agree on everything, and the Pope can’t stop being the Pope and striving for the poor and for peace.
Now everything is up to Trump. If he continues his attacks, the Pope will simply stand firm. It would all turn to the Pope’s advantage, even though he wishes none of this.
In fact, Trump —already very controversial in America and internationally — has, through his papal disputes, become almost like the film’s villain, pitted against the Pope, the good superhero. The Pope’s popularity, already high, has boomed since Trump’s attacks. It would be in Trump’s interest to avoid further argument and find ways to work with the Church, so that some of the Vatican’s prestige might shine on him.
America today has a packed international and domestic agenda; Catholicism — the single largest religion both in America and in the world — should not become the enemy.
Beijing’s appointment and Iran’s Gordian knot
The US should realistically consider how the Holy See could become some kind of partner in an extremely complicated situation. This can happen only if the Holy See remains neutral, since it must consider the entire world, not any single country. There may be lines of convergence in this regard, but they must be studied and thought through with great care, without breaking the Church’s relations with any state in the world.
Next week in Beijing, Trump will meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping. The agenda is highly complex, and the results could be underwhelming. Tensions with China smolder beneath a thin veil of ash.
Meanwhile, the crisis with Iran remains unresolved and could flare up again after the Beijing trip. For this reason, Iran probably has no intention of reaching a conclusive agreement, at least until after the Beijing visit.
The United States faces a Gordian knot with Iran. It must resolve the nuclear issue to prevent Iran from following North Korea’s example and rapidly producing atomic weapons. The Hormuz Strait must be kept open to ensure the security of global energy supplies and the Gulf states, which, more than ever, depend on the United States for their security. Finally, there must be assurances that Iran will not support Shia and Muslim extremism in the region.
In theory, Iran might have an interest in avoiding a showdown with the US that, in the best-case scenario, would further cripple the country.
Iran’s leaders could hand over the fissile material, open the Hormuz, and commit to no longer supporting their regional proxies. This could be achieved through a face-saving ceasefire that leaves the current leaders of Tehran in power and alive for another day. Conditions could then improve over time.
Betting on months of siege to buckle the Iranian regime could prove elusive. Regimes can break or strengthen under duress. One should be clear about the political movements in Tehran to make an informed assessment. But this intelligence proved faulty in the past.
If this scenario fails, the global economy could face severe turbulence in the coming months, and the midterm elections could arrive with inflation through the roof and a stock market in turmoil.
All of this as the war in Ukraine rages on. Despite the mercurial façade, Trump may have a more robust, rational undercurrent. Perhaps it’s time for it to come to the surface.
