Japan’s elections amid controversies with China ring a regional alarm bell. Jingoism in one country will mean chauvinism in all the others, as the European slide into WWI proved a century ago. Is this beginning in Asia now? Beijing should tread carefully.
Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi is poised to win Sunday’s snap elections by a landslide, despite Chinese sanctions. According to opinion polls, voters will boost her government’s majority. They will choose national interests over the economic price imposed by Beijing’s retaliatory measures following her controversial statement on Taiwan.
The tensions rose after Takaichi, in November 2025, said that a Chinese attack on Taiwan (the island, de facto independent, de jure part of one China) could constitute an existential crisis for Japan, warranting a potential military response. It marked a shift in Tokyo’s traditional stance.
Nationalism may be rising in Japan and across Asia, and countries may prefer to incur the cost of displeasing China rather than bow to it. This could be a lesson for the region and for China, whose assertive nationalism is backfiring.
China imposed a series of retaliatory measures intended to undermine the PM and force Japan to change its policies. According to various estimates,[1] the total cost of Chinese reprisals could be around US$ 15 bn, about 0,34% of Japanese GDP annually. There are cuts in tourism and restrictions on exports.
Roughly 60% of Japanese respondents in a poll believed that the deterioration in China-Japan relations due to the remarks would hurt the economy. Yet despite that, Takaichi has become more popular and could be re-elected with a larger majority, confirming her policies toward China.
The Japanese calculus is simple: the fate of Taiwan is a matter of life and death for Japan and cannot be traded for a few Chinese tourists. China should reassure Japan about Taiwan, but it’s unlikely to do it.
The message could be far-reaching and not limited to Japan. Many countries in the region chafe under China’s assertive policies and its blunt use of economic retaliation to enforce its political agenda.
China has a long list of disputes with its neighbors, including territorial claims in Taiwan and the South China Sea, border areas with India, political issues such as human rights, trade and infrastructure controversies, river-course issues, and commercial disputes, such as railway lines.
A regional twist
So far, everyone has de facto agreed to China’s demands out of fear of its massive economic reprisals. China is the largest economy in the region and the first trading partner of most countries in the area. China has used its financial leverage to extract political advantages. It has granted commercial rewards to countries willing to give up their political interests.
Yet the question now is whether other countries will follow Japan’s example and sacrifice economic benefits for national interests. Japan may encourage other regional powers to follow its lead, and the US, which is preparing for a sensitive summit in April in Beijing, may be inclined to support it.
It could mark the beginning of a phase of competitive nationalisms. National interests could be paramount not only for China but also for all countries in the region, thereby exacerbating friction and conflict. Chinese nationalism may have begotten Asian nationalism to counter it.
China may have two ways to reverse the situation. One, cumbersome and tricky: micromanage each dossier without addressing the core reason for the problem, namely, rising nationalisms. The second would be to scale back its own nationalism and seek a new way to cooperate with neighbors and the world. It would be straightforward, but it could entail a massive domestic ideological debate about the country’s future.
For now, China may micromanage the agenda, while a deeper debate could be started internally. In the meantime, tensions are likely to continue to build.
[1] See https://understandingwar.org/research/china-taiwan/china-taiwan-update-february-6-2026/
[1] See https://understandingwar.org/research/china-taiwan/china-taiwan-update-february-6-2026/
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