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ME Peace without China or Russia

/ Director - 1 October 2025

The Gaza agreement that Trump announced in Washington may be tricky. However, it calls on all major Islamic countries to support it and excludes Russia and China. It could mark the start of a new Pax Americana.

The conflict in the Middle East may be coming to an end. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu backed President Donald Trump’s peace plan for Gaza. 

It remains unclear whether it will succeed, as many details are still vague and its implementation has yet to be finalized. But the US has involved many Muslim states in Asia—Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Pakistan, and Indonesia. It could signal the start of a new peace framework in the region.

Apparently, America has succeeded in negotiating a comprehensive peace plan that could be vital for the future global revival of a Pax Americana. European countries might also have a part to play. It could help strengthen US confidence in Asia, where recent actions have been seen as erratic and untrustworthy.

Russia and China have not been involved, in a significant setback in a region crucial for both strategic interests and raw materials. Then the Middle East could feature a new political map without Russia and China. Russia, directly or through its proxies, has been a key player in the region since the end of World War II. China has made significant political and economic inroads in the past few decades. Yet both have been supporting Iran, the clear loser in the area.

Pakistan is expected to deploy 50,000 troops against the Houthis, Iran’s proxies. Syria has become the ground for a compromise between Turkey and Israel. Pro-Iranian forces have been disarmed in Lebanon and are now cornered in Iraq.

Another factor is that in the coming weeks, the war in Ukraine could once again be in the spotlight. Political and military efforts could focus on supporting Ukraine and countering Russia.

Despite the past tariff scare and all the blunders and issues with allies in Asia and Europe, Trump may have achieved a significant success in Gaza. It could still fall apart soon. However, if it does, it will depend on the US or Israel, not Russia or China. This proves the US’s historic massive advantage over its adversaries. America may only need to score one goal to win, while Russia or China needs to score many.

Still, even if everything works out, it’s not the end. There are three key aspects,

  1. The hearts and minds of people in Europe and the world. After decades of being buried under the ashes, antisemitism has reemerged. It has become increasingly acceptable, and in some cases, even fashionable. This needs to be reversed to ensure a stable future for Israel and the region. It will be delicate because some of the countries involved in the deal are happy to dispatch Hamas but are equally pleased to see Israel as the global villain, discriminated against and isolated.
  2. The second aspect involves Ukraine. The main point is not just stopping Russia’s invasion but reversing it. It will require significant effort, but Israel or Turkey could support it.
  3. Lastly, implementing the agreement will be a minefield full of traps that could blow everything up.

One very delicate element for the US will be restoring ties with India while maintaining a balance with Pakistan. Pakistan maintains good relations with China, although it opposes Iran in its fight in Yemen. Just hours after the Washington announcement, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi congratulated the agreement.

But the political significance remains. It’s a blow for Beijing’s parade on September 3 when China showcased its new weapons and the newfound pact with Russia and North Korea.

China, outside the Middle East, is surrounded by many adversaries. It can improve relations with India, but what about the disputed borders? It can strengthen ties with Japan or South Korea, but what about Taiwan? It can connect with Vietnam or the Philippines, but what about the South China Sea?

The USA doesn’t have territorial disputes with any of them; the issue is the opposite – they complain because the USA doesn’t love them enough, which can be complicated. Betrayed love and broken hearts can be dangerous. However, territorial competition is an entirely different ball game. ial competition is an entirely different ball game. 

Francesco Sisci
Director - Published posts: 226

Francesco Sisci, born in Taranto in 1960, is an Italian analyst and commentator on politics, with over 30 years of experience in China and Asia.

3 Comments
  • Trump’s Gaza peace plan could revive Pax Americana | Today Headline

  • Trump’s Gaza peace plan could revive Pax Americana – World News

  • F. Tuijn

    Antisemitism is a big problem. The Antisemitic Apartheid regime is trying to achieve an ‘Endlösung’ by murdering the Arab speaking Christians, Muslims and others living in Gaza and on the West Bank. I don’t think this criminal regime should or could survive.

    Remember that antisemitism is mostly a western Christian feature. The Crusaders murdered any Jews that didn’t escape in time – they had murdered their God. Orthodox Christians have had more contact with Muslims through the centuries and had mostly lost that trait that, I think, derived from the fear of Roman Empire of a fourth Jewish insurrection after those of 69, 115 and 132 CE. Muslims hate Israel and most Israelis for what they did to the Palestinians.

    The US recently abandoned its failed war against Yemen. The recent performance in Quantico has made US military even more ridiculous. And then there is the trouble with the dollar, the US debt of $37T and US trying to extort hundreds of billions dollars from their ‘friends’, Japan, South Korea, EU.

    US and EU are unable to provide adequate air defense to Ukraine and they cannot do anything about the lack of soldiers. The Ukrainian commander in chief said that Russia has three times as many soldiers as Ukraine. And in the war of attrition Russia is fighting Ukraine looses many more soldiers than Russia.

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